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This file is auto-generated *\/\n!function(d,l){\"use strict\";l.querySelector&&d.addEventListener&&\"undefined\"!=typeof URL&&(d.wp=d.wp||{},d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage||(d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if((t||t.secret||t.message||t.value)&&!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var s,r,n,a=l.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=l.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),c=new RegExp(\"^https?:$\",\"i\"),i=0;i<o.length;i++)o[i].style.display=\"none\";for(i=0;i<a.length;i++)s=a[i],e.source===s.contentWindow&&(s.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message?(1e3<(r=parseInt(t.value,10))?r=1e3:~~r<200&&(r=200),s.height=r):\"link\"===t.message&&(r=new URL(s.getAttribute(\"src\")),n=new URL(t.value),c.test(n.protocol))&&n.host===r.host&&l.activeElement===s&&(d.top.location.href=t.value))}},d.addEventListener(\"message\",d.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),l.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){for(var e,t,s=l.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),r=0;r<s.length;r++)(t=(e=s[r]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))||(t=Math.random().toString(36).substring(2,12),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t)),e.contentWindow.postMessage({message:\"ready\",secret:t},\"*\")},!1)))}(window,document);\n\/\/# sourceURL=http:\/\/www.geology.com.ua\/wp-includes\/js\/wp-embed.min.js\n\/* ]]> *\/\n<\/script>\n","description":"Geoinformatika 2017; 4(64) : 62-74 \u0423\u0414\u041a 551.58.1; 551.576.3 (477) CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN UKRAINE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY BASED ON DATA OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE S.V. Krakovska1, L.V. Palamarchuk1,2, N.V. Gnatiuk1,3, \u0422.M. Shpytal1, I.P. Shedemenko4 1Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37 Prospekt Nauki, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, \u0435-mail: svitlanakrakovska@gmail.com, shpital@bigmir.net 2Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 64\/13, Volodymyrska Street, Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine, \u0435-mail: palamarchuk.l@ukr.net 3Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, Office 49, Vasilievsky Island, St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation, \u0435-mail: natalia.gnatiuk@niersc.spb.ru 4Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska Street, building 106, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, \u0435-mail: shedemenko@i.ua Purpose The study aims at examining the main features of precipitation distribution in Ukraine for three future periods in the 21st century and its changes relatively to the period of current climate 1991\u20132010 and standard WMO climatic period 1961\u20131990, based on a selected best regional climate model ensemble. Methodology In order to obtained long-term precipitation projections for the territory of Ukraine with high resolution, we used regional climate models (RCMs) from the EU FP-6 project ENSEMBLES (ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) initiated with boundary conditions from the IPCC scenario SRES A1B. Previous statistical analysis of all RCMs\u2019 outputs, compared with the gridded observational data E-Obs (ecad.eu), showed that an ensemble of four regional climate models (REMO, RCA3-E, RRCM and RCA3-B) proves much better than other reproduced regional features and the annual distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, this ensemble was used to cal\u00adculate future precipitation fields. Further, we calculated precipitation values in each grid point (approximately 1200, with 25km step) on the basis of observation for the base period 1991\u20132010 and projected changes between each future and the base period by additive and multiplicative methods. Annual, seasonal and monthly changes of precipitation distributions were analysed for five different regions and on average for the whole territory of Ukraine in three future periods 2011\u20132030, 2031\u20132050, and 2081\u20132100. Maps of seasonal and annual changes in precipitation distribution in Ukraine are presented and analysed in the study. Findings According to the obtained projections of precipitation changes for three 20-year future periods, ranges of changes for monthly precipitation sums are expected to be from \u221220% to +42% in 2011\u20132030, from \u221218% to +37% in 2031\u20132050, and from \u221240% to +48% in 2081\u20132100. In general, we project precipitation increase in the cold pe\u00adriod of year and its decrease in the warm period of year. The annual precipitation numbers will slightly rise and their inter-annual distribution in most regions will remain continental, except for the east and south regions, where clear minimums and maximums of the annual precipitation distribution in the future will be smoothed out. Practical value Long-term climatic forecast of precipitation change is an important scientific task. It may be used for example in strategic planning of the development of different economic sectors, such as agriculture, energy, transport; it may also be helpful in other biological and natural scientific studies. Keywords: precipitation, regional climate model, ensemble of models, climatic period. The full text of papers References: Balabukh V.O. Minlyvist duzhe sylnykh doshchiv i sylnykh zlyv v Ukraini. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2008, iss. 257, pp. 61-72 [in Ukrainian]. Balabukh V.O. Traiektorii tsykloniv, shcho zumovliuiut nebezpechnu i stykhiinu kilkist opadiv v Ukraini u teplyi period roku. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2004, iss. 253, pp. 37-49 [in Ukrainian]. Barabash M.B., Korzh T.V., Tatarchuk O.H. Doslidzhennia zmin ta kolyvan opadiv na rubezhi \u0425\u0425 i \u0425\u0425I st. v umovakh poteplinnia hlobalnoho klimatu. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2004, iss. 253, pp. 92-102 [in Ukrainian]. Voloshchuk V.M. Osnovni zakonomirnosti suchasnoho poteplinnia klimatu na terytorii Ukrainy ta yoho ekolohichni naslidky. Ukraina ta hlobalni protsesy: heohrafichnyi vymir. Kyiv; Lutsk: Vezha, 2000. Vol. 3, pp. 202-208 [in Ukrai\u00adnian]. Vrublevska O.O., Katerusha H.P., Honcharova L.D. Klimatolohiia. Odessa: Ekolohiia, 2013, 343 p. Klimat Ukrainy (eds V.M. Lipinskyi, V.A. Diachuk, V.M. Babichenko). Kyiv: Vydavnytstvo Raievskoho, 2003, 343 p. [in Ukrainian]. Krakovska S.V., Hnatiuk N.V. Zminy poverkhnevoho richkovoho stoku v Ukraini do 2050 r. za proektsiieiu rehionalnoi klimatychnoi modeli REMO. Geoinformatyka, 2013, no. 3, pp. 76-81 [in Ukrainian]. Krakovska S.V., Hnatiuk N.V., Shpytal T.M., Palamarchuk L.V. Proektsii zmin pryzemnoi temperatury povitria za danymy ansambliu rehionalnykh klimatychnykh modelei u rehionakh Ukrainy v XXI stolitti. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2016, iss. 268, pp. 33-44 [in Ukrainian]. Krakovska S.V., Palamarchuk L.V., Bilozerova A.V., Shpytal T.M. Zahalna khmarnist v Ukraini do seredyny \u0425\u0425\u0406 st. za danymy ansambliu rehionalnykh klimatychnykh modelei. Geoinformatyka, 2017, no. 3(63), pp. 56-66 [in Ukrainian]. Krakovska S.V., Palamarchuk L.V., Shpytal T.M. Elektronni bazy meteorolohichnykh danykh ta rezultaty chysel\u00adnykh klimatychnykh modelei u vyznachenni spetsializovanykh klimatychnykh pokaznykiv. Hidrolohiia, hidrokhimiia ta hidroekolohiia: period. nauk. zb. Kyivskyi Natsionalnyi Universytet im. Tarasa Shevchenka. Kyiv, 2016, vol. 3 (42), pp. 95-105 [in Ukrainian]. Palamarchuk L.V., Krakovska S.V., Shedemenko I.P., Diukel H.O., Hnatiuk N.V. Veryfikatsiia danykh svitovoho kli\u00admatychnoho tsentru (CRU) ta rehionalnoi modeli klimatu (REMO) shchodo prohnozu polia opadiv v Ukraini za kontrolnyi period 1961-1990 rr. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2009, iss. 258, pp. 69-84 [in Ukrainian]. Shedemenko I.P., Krakovska S.V., Hnatiuk N.V. Veryfikatsiia danykh Yevropeiskoi bazy E-OBS shchodo pryzemnoi temperatury povitria ta kilkosti opadiv u administratyvnykh oblastiakh Ukrainy. Nauk. praci UkrNDHMI. Kyiv, 2012, iss. 262, pp. 36-48 [in Ukrainian]. Berg P., Feldmann H., Panitz H.-J. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, vol. 448, pp. 80\u201392. Available at DOI: 10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2012.04.026 (Accessed 10 October 2017). Haylock M.R., Hofstra N., Klein Tank A.M.G., Klok E.J., Jones P.D. New M. A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres). 2008, vol.113. Available at D20119, doi:10.1029\/2008JD10201 (Accessed 10 October 2017). IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 p. Krakovska S., Gnatiuk N., Shpytal T., Shedemenko I. Methodology of [&hellip;]"}