Geoinformatika 2011; 2 : 61-67

CORRELATION EARTHQUAKES OF CARPATHIAN REGION OF UKRAINE AND ADJOINING TERRITORIES WITH SUNSPOT NUMBERS

Nazarevych L.Ye., Kendzera O.V., Nazarevych A.V.

A correlation of perceptible (М ≥ 3) earthquakes of Carpathian region of Ukraine and adjoining territories of Slovakia, Hungary and Romania with solar activity (sunspot numbers) is studied. An estimation of this correlation for four phases of 11-year sun’s activity cycle is carried out. It is shown that correlation exists and is mostly revealed for maximum and minimum phases of sun’s activity cycle. A retrospective analysis of earthquake probabilistic prognosis efficiency on phases of sun’s activity cycle was carried out and it shows that in time interval of maximum and minimum of sun’s activity the greatest number of local earthquakes is happened what can be an additional qualitative criterion for probabilistic prognosis of those earthquakes.

Keywords: earthquakes, magnitude, sunspot number, forecast, Carpathian region of Ukraine.