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Geoinformatika 2017; 4(64) : 62-74

УДК 551.58.1; 551.576.3 (477)

CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN UKRAINE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY BASED ON DATA OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLE

S.V. Krakovska1, L.V. Palamarchuk1,2, N.V. Gnatiuk1,3, Т.M. Shpytal1, I.P. Shedemenko4

1Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37 Prospekt Nauki, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, е-mail: svitlanakrakovska@gmail.com, shpital@bigmir.net
2Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 64/13, Volodymyrska Street, Kyiv, 01601, Ukraine, е-mail: palamarchuk.l@ukr.net
3Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, Office 49, Vasilievsky Island, St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation, е-mail: natalia.gnatiuk@niersc.spb.ru 4Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants, NAS of Ukraine, 12, Lysohirska Street, building 106, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, е-mail: shedemenko@i.ua

Purpose The study aims at examining the main features of precipitation distribution in Ukraine for three future periods in the 21st century and its changes relatively to the period of current climate 1991–2010 and standard WMO climatic period 1961–1990, based on a selected best regional climate model ensemble.
Methodology In order to obtained long-term precipitation projections for the territory of Ukraine with high resolution, we used regional climate models (RCMs) from the EU FP-6 project ENSEMBLES (ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) initiated with boundary conditions from the IPCC scenario SRES A1B. Previous statistical analysis of all RCMs’ outputs, compared with the gridded observational data E-Obs (ecad.eu), showed that an ensemble of four regional climate models (REMO, RCA3-E, RRCM and RCA3-B) proves much better than other reproduced regional features and the annual distribution of precipitation over the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, this ensemble was used to cal­culate future precipitation fields. Further, we calculated precipitation values in each grid point (approximately 1200, with 25km step) on the basis of observation for the base period 1991–2010 and projected changes between each future and the base period by additive and multiplicative methods. Annual, seasonal and monthly changes of precipitation distributions were analysed for five different regions and on average for the whole territory of Ukraine in three future periods 2011–2030, 2031–2050, and 2081–2100. Maps of seasonal and annual changes in precipitation distribution in Ukraine are presented and analysed in the study.
Findings According to the obtained projections of precipitation changes for three 20-year future periods, ranges of changes for monthly precipitation sums are expected to be from −20% to +42% in 2011–2030, from −18% to +37% in 2031–2050, and from −40% to +48% in 2081–2100. In general, we project precipitation increase in the cold pe­riod of year and its decrease in the warm period of year. The annual precipitation numbers will slightly rise and their inter-annual distribution in most regions will remain continental, except for the east and south regions, where clear minimums and maximums of the annual precipitation distribution in the future will be smoothed out.
Practical value Long-term climatic forecast of precipitation change is an important scientific task. It may be used for example in strategic planning of the development of different economic sectors, such as agriculture, energy, transport; it may also be helpful in other biological and natural scientific studies.

Keywords: precipitation, regional climate model, ensemble of models, climatic period.

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