Geoinformatika 2016; 4(60) : 83-91  (in Ukrainian)

GEOLOGICAL-DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE EARTH’S HUMAN POPULATION PROCESS. PART I

A.V. Khtema¹, V.M. Khtema

¹Limited Liability Company “Prom-energy product”, 5, Dimitrova Str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine, e-mail: anna.khtema@gmail.com

The purpose of the paper is to develop a geological-demographic model of the Earth’s human population process with a long-term forecasting element; to get a digital and graphic format of the information on a probable value of parameters of human population process in various scenarios and variants of its development.
Design/methodology/approach. Comparison of cosmophysical model of Earth’s evolutionary development with demographic model of hyperbolic population growth. Comparison of the scheme of first human beings appearance with a typical scheme of branching chain reaction. We used the anthropic principle and feedback mechanism, statistic methods of demographic data processing, and empirical relationship and space-stratigraphic ranking of the earth-type planets.
Findings. As a result, we have created a geological-demographic model, and made a forecast of continuance of the human population process. This process starts from the time of first human beings appearance till the time of last human beings disappearance. The last human beings are considered to be creatures critically dependent on the planet’s energy condition.
Practical value/implications. The study permitted to obtain so for unobserved and not measured geological-demographic and astronomical data. These data allows us to extend theoretical and practical possibilities of geoinformatics, demography, and astrobiology. As a result, it will make possible to upgrade validity of long-time demographic and cosmologic predictions. Further directions for geological-demographic research should preferably be associated with spatially-temporal localization of areas with the minimum intensity and capacity of future physical-geological and climatic processes.

Keywords: geology, demographics, model, forecast, process, time.

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