Geoinformatika 2017; 1(61) : 80-89 (in Ukrainian)

GEOLOGICAL-DEMOGRAPHIC MODEL OF THE EARTH’S HUMAN POPULATION PROCESS. PART II

A.V. Khtema¹, V.M. Khtema

¹Limited Liability Company “Prom-energy product”, 5, Dimitrova Str., Kyiv, 03150, Ukraine, e-mail: anna.khtema@gmail.com

Purpose. Development of geological-demographic model of the Earth’s human population process with long-term forecasting element. Getting digital and graphic format of the information about probable value of parameters of human population process over various scenarios and variants of its development.
Design/methodology/approach. Comparison of cosmophysical model of Earth’s evolutionary development with demographic model of hyperbolic population growth. Also comparison scheme of first human beings appearance with typical scheme of branching chain reaction. We were using anthropic principle and feedback mechanism, statistic methods of demographic data processing, empirical relationship and space-stratigraphic ranking of the earth-type planets.
Findings. Consequently as a result the geological-demographic model was created. The forecast of continuance of human population process was made. This process starts from the time of first human beings appearance till the time of last human beings disappearance. The last human beings considered to be creature that critically depends on planet’s energy condition.
Practical value/implications. The benefits of this study – received unobserved and not measured before geological-demographic and astronomical data. This data allows extend theoretical and practical possibilities of geoinformatics, demography and astrobiology. As a result it will make possible to upgrade validity of long-time demographic and cosmologic predictions. Further directions for geological-demographic research preferred to associate with spatially-temporal localization of areas with the minimum intensity and capacity of physical-geological and climatic processes in the future.

Кeywords: geology, demographics, model, forecast, process, time.

The full text of papers will be available after 01/10/2018    

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