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Geoinformatika 2018; 3(67) : 62-77

УДК 551.58.001.57;551.58.001.18+551.509.3

PROJECTIONS OF AIR TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN UKRAINE REGIONS TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 21ST CENTURY BASED ON REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ENSEMBLES

S.V. Krakovska 1, L.V. Palamarchuk 1,2, N.V. Gnatiuk 1,3, Т.M. Shpytal 1

1 Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37, Prospekt Nauki, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, е-mail: svitlanakrakovska@gmail.com, shpital@bigmir.net
2 Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 64/13, Volodymyrska Street, Kyiv, 01601,Ukraine, е-mail: palamarchuk.l@ukr.net
3 Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, 14th Line 7, Office 49, Vasilievsky Island, St. Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation, е-mail: natalia.gnatiuk@niersc.spb.ru

Purpose. The study aims at examining the main features of air temperature and relative humidity distribution in Ukraine to the middle of the 21st century and their changes relatively to the standard WMO climatic period 1961–1990 based on selected and verified regional climate model ensembles. The paper focuses on the analysis of the thermal and humidification regimes all for Ukraine as a whole, and for individual regions, administrative units and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
Methodology. In order to obtained long-term air temperature and relative humidity projections for the territory of Ukraine with high resolution, we used regional climate models (RCMs) from the EU FP-6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) initiated with IPCC scenario SRES A1B. Multi-year monthly, cold and warm half-year and annual values of air temperature and relative humidity have been determined for the period 2021-2050 based on selected 10 RCMs ensemble for air temperature and 3 RCMs ensemble for relative humidity. Methodology of ensemble formation for air temperature projections is described previously in detail by authors. For relative humidity, according to the same methodology, three RCMs (REMO, RCA3, RACMO2) were selected that are part of the previous ensemble for air temperature and are the minimum number of models for the ensemble formation. The verification of the RCM’s outputs was performed for the standard WMO climatic period 1961–1990 using data observations from European database E-Obs (https://www.ecad.eu/) for temperature and data from Climate Cadastre of Ukraine (http://www.cgo.kiev.ua/index.php?dv=pos-klim-kadastr) for relative humidity.
Results. According to the obtained projections of air temperature to the middle of the 21st century, the monthly air temperature will increase in the range from 0.4 to 3.0oC and the annual air temperature will increase in the range from 1.6 to 2.1oC. Most intensive warming relative to the standard climatic period is expected in the northeast, east and south regions of Ukraine.
For the first time, relative humidity projections to the middle of the 21st century were obtained for the whole territory of Ukraine and for individual regions and administrative units of the country. The range of projected changes in relative humidity is within ± 1% for annual and ± 3% for monthly values. Generally, positive increments of the monthly values are expected in December (-0.3 ÷ 1.5%) and May (-0.5 ÷ 1.2%), and mostly negative – in March (-2.3 ÷ -0.2%), June (-2.7 ÷ 0.2%) and February (-1.5 ÷ 0.7%). Within the established range of relative humidity fluctuations, with the increase of the surface air temperature an increase in the moisture content in the surface layer should be expected, that could result in further increasing of heavy precipitation events particularly in warm half-year.
Practical value. The obtained air temperature and relative humidity projections may be used for further studies and assessments of the impacts of future climatic conditions on economy, ecosystems, health, etc.

Keywords: air temperature, relative humidity, regional climate model, ensemble of models.

 

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