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Geoinformatika 2018; 4(68) : 74-92

DATES OF AIR TEMPERATURE TRANSITION OVER 0, 5, 10 AND 15 °С AND CORRESPONDING LENGTHS OF CLIMATIC SEASONS FROM THE SECOND PART OF THE 20th TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 21st CENTURY IN UKRAINE

S.V. Krakovska, T.M. Shpytal

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 37, Prospekt Nauki, Kyiv, 03028, Ukraine, е-mail: svitlanakrakovska@gmail.com, shpital@bigmir.net

Purpose. The study aims at obtaining, by unified methodology and analyzing observed recent and projected future changes, the dates of start and end with corresponding lengths of main climatic seasons for all 25 administrative centers in Ukraine. The paper focuses on four climatic seasons when daily air temperature (t) is steadily over thresholds: warm season (t > 0ºC), growing season (t > 5ºC), active vegetation season (t > 10ºC) and climatic or true summer season (t > 15ºC).
Initial data/ methodology. The basis of the study is daily air temperature records from the European database E-Obs (https://www.ecad.eu) for period 1961-2010 and from 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with the true calendar from the EU FP-6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) initiated with IPCC scenario SRES A1B for period 1981-2050. Moreover, in our previous investigation, we verified and proved the ability of all used data sources (E-Obs and RCMs) to represent climatic temperature regime in Ukraine. We have applied a widely-used climatological methodology for obtaining dates of air temperature steady transitions over thresholds based on multi-year daily temperature averages for three climatic periods: standard 1961-1990, recent 1981-2010 and projected future 2021-2050. The steadiness of air temperature transitions over thresholds was still an issue in some cases even for 30-year daily temperature averaging. That is why we propose an improvement for climatological methodology by applying running averaging with different bases up to 31 days for better smoothing of mean temperature annual course and obtaining its true climatological representation. This unified methodology was applied for all data sets for all 25 administrative centers in Ukraine for four climatic seasons and for three pointed climatic periods.
Results. To analyze the obtained results in addition to traditional tables, we have worked out a new graphical format of representation – diagrams that permit to easily compare all pointed climatic characteristics and their changes with time for every city and between cities proper. The main results as projections to the middle of the 21st century demonstrate further stretching of all considered climatic seasons, confirming previous estimations obtained by other authors with different methodologies. Namely, warm season is projected to stretch generally by 15-20 days with a maximum of 54 days in Uzhgorod and it will last for the whole year in Simferopil; growing season will be longer on average by 8-10 days with minimum of 5 days in Donetsk and maximum of 20 days in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson; season of active vegetation will prolong on average by 13-15 days with a minimum of 5 days in Simferopil and maximum of 19 days in Uzhgorod; climatic summer is expected to be longer generally by 10-12 days with minimum of 3 days in Luhansk and maximum of 18 days in Simferopil and Odesa.
Practical value/ implications. The obtained dates of start/end and lengths of climatic seasons for period 1961-2050 should be a basis for further estimations of possible vulnerability and changes in the functioning of different components of ecosystems, production of energy, agriculture, and forestry, as well as the development of other economic sectors, including transport, tourism, and healthcare. The presented findings have very broad application perspectives in the development and implementation of adaptation measures to climate change at national, regional, local and individual levels in Ukraine.

Keywords: dates of steady transition of mean daily air temperature, regional climate model, warm season, growing season, climatic summer.

 

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